Colin Fairbrother

Informative, honest, indepth articles on Lotto and
whether other than through sheer luck the odds can be bettered.

Skip Navigation Links
Home (List of Article Links)
Ion Salui was a Romanian refugee in 1984, who was accepted by the USA arriving there in 1985 at the age of 35 and settling in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania which incidentally rhymes with Transylvania. Born in Gemeni, Romania on March 9, 1950 Salui claims to be a 1976 Political Economics graduate of the prestigious by Romanian standards, Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest and therein is the first of many contradictions that the most mildly Socratic cannot ignore.

Given the ego of Ion Salui is on par with the worst case of the psychiatric illness Grandiose Delusions or Delusions of Grandeur one must ask why he has never to the date of this article appended his tertiary qualification to his name. Does he really have a degree involving the study of mathematics at a high level when his rambling writings indicate no more than a naive, schoolboy, poorish understanding laced with a high dose of numerology and occult poison and the most common intuitive but incorrect directions?

With a track record of repeated bald faced lying in various newsgroups and his own writings the circumstances of his flight from the Nicolai Ceauchescu communist regime, where he was a government employee, definitely needs to be clarified. A person who was hard of hearing claims that in songs of praise for the "beloved leader" the off key, enthusiastic warbling of Ion Salui never failed to make him wince and contort with pain.

With a degree in "Economics" one is excused for thinking that a job a bit above that of farmworker, mainly filled by uneducated border crossers from Mexico, would have been found but no. Salui worked as a lowly paid farmworker for the next 20 years and no effort was made to obtain a position more becoming his "qualification" with a much higher rate of pay.

Saliu had like many an interest in computers and with the 32 bit version of Microsoft Windows released in 1995 and the subsequent blooming of the web or internet he registered the URL IonSaliu and published a html page called The Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) in 1997 which in its original form (I have a copy) he claimed to have written December 4, 1996.

One must firstly question the aptness of applying the likelihood of how long an event may not occur as being most appropiate to the title Fundamental Formula of Gambling rather than Percentage Return, especially for games such as Lotto with fair random selections. The reason is simple when it is understood that Salui and others assume the particular history of draws for a Lotto game can be used to predict what  numbers are more likely to occur in the next draw. Any doubt that  we are dealing with non other than an imposter to rational thought should now be well and truly dispelled.

This FFG article shows an abject ignorance of what is taught in High School or just one semester on introductory probability and basically does not go beyond the concepts introduced in the first chapter or so of any decent book on the subject. His article begs the question how could this be written by an Economics graduate and arouses a strong suspicion that if any degree is involved it is practically certain it is in numerology. Numerologists are fond of making big some mathematical axioms and then interlacing occultist nonsense to give it some credibility to the naive and gullible.

In particular it is highly unlikely that someone could study probability at tertiary level and still believe in the Gambler's Fallacy where prior independent events influence future independent events and indeed refuse to acknowledge that the whole basis for probability is built upon some events being classed as dependent and others as independent. Quite simply those that don't are wandering in the area of the occult and  para-normal.

A close examination of the content of the article published 1997, The Fundamental Formula of Gambling, in its original form sets the tone for what followed from Ion Saliu.

We need go no further than the second paragraph to find the inevitable name dropping by Saliu of Blaise Pascal (1623 - 1662) and the attributing of a statement to him unquoted and unfounded, "... the past drawings do count in any game of chance and Pascal demonstrated that hundreds of years ago." What baloney! Count for what? Where and when was it written and in what context? Why not quote the source as is normal?

Prior to that statement Saliu states the obvious, as if he discovered it, that in a Pick 3 Lotto game, " ... all combinations have an equal probability of appearance." It is worth noting that he acknowledges this because later on, his ramblings throw up contradictions.

Paragraph two raises the question of how many events are required to be 99.9% certain of a particular event occurring which in any book or course on probability will be considered in the first or second chapter. A full treatment of how he arrived at what is simply a transformation from a fundamental probability equation is considered in two of my articles: -
Ion Saliu and his Fundamental Formula of Gambling
Fundamental Formula of Gambling Ion Saliu Plagiarism

It's worth mentioning the problem that was posed by The Chevalier de Mere (Antoine Gombaud) and discussed by Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat back in the 17th Century as there is nothing new added by the numerologist Saliu. The question was which is the more likely, a 'six' in 4 throws of a dice or two 'sixes'in 24 throws of two dice?

The answer for 4 throws of one dice is 1 - (5/6)4=0.517746
The answer for 24 throws of 2 dice is 1 - (35/36)24=0.491404
 
The third paragraph considers 9000 tosses of a fair coin and clearly shows he hasn't a clue about what is and what is
not expected by simply doing a few runs. According to Saliu there should be only one run of either 9 Heads or 9 Tails. A simple experiment that any computer coding novice could do would show as I found using the Mersenne Twister algorithm there were 4 runs of 10 and 18 runs of 9 or more.

The overall problem which can't be got around is that if you wait for runs of 9 before participating then that represents 0.2% of the tosses and is clearly not practible. Either you are in a game like this or you're part of the audience. With a reasonable participation rate the continuation of the run or change to the flip side is pretty well 50%. Here is what Salui wrote, "There will be, however, 1 (one)
defective series
(sic). That series will consist of either 9 heads-only or 9 tails-only." So emphatically put but utter ignorance and rot!

The sixth paragraph gets to the nitty gritty of what numerologist Saliu is all about ie promoting his fantastical, primitive bit of reporting nonsense he calls his skip chart in Lotto Pick 3 which basically is the Gambler's Fallacy incarnate. You need look no further than my article on what follows an Unmatched, Double or Triple in Pick 3 to see that they follow the odds and nothing is gained: -
Pick3 Lotto Chances of Success after Multiple Consecutive Doubles or Unmatched

What Follows an Unmatched, Double or Triple in Pick 3
 
The outrageous claim is now made by Ion Saliu that by following his skip chart players can reduce the house margin from 50% to 2.3%. With the advent of online operators offering a house margin of only 10% for the same Pick 3 State draws, making Salui's claim starkly false, he withdrew the paragraph which I quote here: -

"You can diminish the house edge using the reporting feature (skip chart) of my application MDI Editor & Lotto. ... you can discard of 2 digits for example. In this case, you would have to play from a field of only 8 gigits, the odds being 512 to 1. The house edge is now only 2.3% or over 20 times better than in the case of 10 digits."

What utter deception, lies, rot and blatent nonsense. With the benefit of hindsight not even one example is provided by Saliu for where this has worked.


I always feel guilty about spending time writing on Ion Salui as he is basically just another Lotto nutcase but having started publishing web pages in 1997 and spamming the links anywhere and everywhere his name is there in web searches done on relevant topics to gambling and Lotto. Someone has to shoot down his nonsense and it seems it is up to me to make the effort.

Most of the maniacal, rambling writings of the fool Ion Saliu can be dismissed by any rational person who can persevere for a page or two. For any fair minded person one of his most bizarre claims among many false and grating claims is to be a Free Thinker. You don't necessarily have to be an atheist, agnostic or humanist to qualify as a Free Thinker but you must be honest, rational and capable of arguing in a Critical Thinking way. Have a look at any of the writings of Bertrand Russell to see how succinctly words of wisdom can be delivered.

Colin Fairbrother 

     


This article first published on the web 23/9/2011 and has been viewed 7660 times.
The author may be contacted at fairbros@bigpond.com. To generate sets of Lotto numbers to play for most Lotto games around the world go to LottoToWin ® where for a US$5.00 annual subscription you can store the numbers as well, to check later for wins. The numbers produced have no duplicate subset combinations of two integers (if applicable) or three integers, use all the integers for the particular Lotto game and maximize the coverage of the potential winning main number. The articles on this site have been selected from the many at the forum LottoPoster
© Colin Fairbrother 2004 to 2012 All rights reserved.